I like the Cougars to rebound this week after losing to Eastern Washington. We have your classic sell high buy low situation with Boise State coming off a huge 45-10 win over ULL, and Washington State losing to a FCS school in Eastern Washington. Look Washington State did the same thing a year ago opening up and losing against Portland State, a team Eastern Washington lost by just 3 points to. I canât buy much stock in that since Eastern Washington was likely preparing for that game all summer long. Under Mike Leach this team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss, and they are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog. Oh and by the way this is a team that has won games on the road against teams like USC, UCLA, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Cal. This team that lost to Portland State a year ago, missed a field goal that would have beaten Stanford a year ago. I also had this line at 6 in favor of Boise before what happened last week which means we are getting over 4.5 points of value through two key numbers of 7 and 10.
Boise State has their own issues this year despite what the media wants to tell you. Iâll start with the offense that does return 8 guys (So does Washington Stateâs offense). They are losing two offensive lineman that were first team All Mountain West and they were at LT, and C probably the two most important positions on an offensive line. They have a new offensive coordinator, oh wait two co-offensive coordinators in Scott Huff and Zak Hill. Huff has been with Boise for years and has no experience calling plays, and Zak Hill came over from Hawaii where he was the offensive coordinator a year ago. Now I understand why they need two guys to run the show. Iâm surprised a team with a brand name like Boise State cannot get better coaching. I havenât been sold on Bryan Harsin either and the coaching moves he is able to make makes more sense to me why this team has under achieved since Chris Peterson has left.
As we saw in the opener Washington Stateâs offense will be just fine. That leaves things open in this game for a back door cover in case Boise gets up early. Washington State returns 8 starters, an experienced offensive line and Luke Falk at QB. Boise Stateâs defense loses starters in the worst possible places. They replace their entire defensive line, and 2 of their guys in the secondary that were All Mountain West defensive backs. Yet, everyone is ready to jump all over Boise State as a dark horse team to get to the college playoff, I think not. This game should be back and forth, but Washington Stateâs defensive coordinator Alex Grinch improved this defense 27 spots last year from 2014. He spent 3 seasons at Missouri helping the secondary and has a bright future.
